OCTOBER 1, 2017 posted at 9:37 pm
Are the US Markets setting up for an Early October Surprise?
analysts have recently warned that the US markets are setting up for a
potentially massive correction, 40~70% some warn. has
shown massive market cycles that correlate with an October market
correction. Our VIX cycle analysis indicates that we should be
expecting a spike in the VIX right now (within the next 3~4
days). What does all this mean in reality for the average
investors, we have to determine the amount of risk compared to the
amount of potential gain in any trade. Our job is to measure this
relationship properly and to attempt to find opportunities in taking
risks for an adequate amount of gain. Often, this business is
difficult to manage expectations and presumed risk factors for
traders. We’ve been trading, combined, for over 40+ years and
have learned that the markets don’t always do what we expect them to
do. A perfect example is our most recent VIX Spike call for Sept 9th ~ 12th.
Even though our analysis was valid and accurate, we did not see the VIX
spike levels we had projected to happen – such is life in the
markets. We strive every week to deliver superior analysis,
trading triggers/alerts and daily markets updates to our clients.
Right or wrong, we live by our abilities to call successful trading
triggers and provide timely and accurate market research.
now, a number of US major markets are setting up with divergence
between price and common technical indicators. Because many
investors fail to even review or focus on longer term charts, very few
may be aware of these setups. Given the size and strength of the
recent moves, we are not making predictions regarding the downside
price potential (although it could be substantial). We are simply
pointing out that these divergence patterns are setting up in a number
of US major markets and we believe this is a significant correlation
pattern of a future event.
Daily NASDAQ chart provides one of the clearest examples of the
divergence patterns. Price has continually tightened within an
upward sloping trend channel and has recently formed a bear flag
formation. MACD has related multiple divergence tops over the
past 3+ months and RSI has hovered just above 45 throughout this trend
to support the upward move. As washout high reversal early this
week would be a perfect setup for a divergent reversal. A prices spike
a bit higher early this week followed by a deep market correction.
second chart of the ES provides even further evidence of the
setup. This chart is a Weekly ES (S&P) chart that shows the
divergent price action going all the way back to February/March of
2017. The cyan blue trend channel (support level) is clearly our
potential downside target and the RSI is continuing to hover above 58
as this trend continues. Could the extended divergence be warning
of a potentially massive correction? If so, the RSI would quickly
fall to below 50 and price would attempt to retest the support channel
(-200 pts from current levels).
following chart of the INDU, again, shows the US majors are all setting
up in a similar pattern. One can clearly see the continued
divergence price pattern from early 2017 and the continued RSI support
above 60. The confluence of these divergence patterns is causing
us to be concerned of a surprise price rotation in early October.
We’ve seen what we call a “washout price rotation” happen over and over
in the markets near critical tops and bottoms. The telltale signs
of these moves is extended weakness of a trend (as indicated by the
MACD divergence), technical failure (which would be the resulting RSI
breakdown) and a moderately high volume “last price advance” followed
by a clear and quick price reversal (the “washout setup”).
further assist you in understanding this type of setup/reversal, we’ve
provided a clear Intraday NQ Washout reversal setup for you to see what
it looks like. This is a nearly perfect example of bigger volume
and price range at the end of a trend (what we call the exhaustion
move) that sets up the new bullish trend. You can see the NQ
market had been moving lower and had been consolidating briefly.
Just before this washout move, it appears the market was “pausing a
bit”. Then, seemingly out of the blue, a big down move generated
lots of renewed interest from sellers. Only to have that
“exhaustion move”, or what we term the “washout low” to sucker in the
sellers, stop out the longs and, eventually, continue much higher.
Could this be setting up this week with an early Monday/Tuesday washout high price rotation in the US markets?
items we will be watching early this week are the NQ (tech heavy and
usually an early indication of any general market weakness) the XLF (US
banking sector). The recent hurricanes and natural event
disasters are surely to take a toll on the US consumer for a
while. Recent news has suggested that consumer spending is flat
in certain areas and that GDP may flatten out a bit. We assume
delinquencies will begin to skyrocket based on displaced workers and
jobs over the next 6+ months. This leads us to believe a market
correction would be a natural, and healthy, event in the immediate near
just don’t “go up” perpetually. This recent move higher has been
one of the longest in history to not see a 5% or greater
correction. Markets need breadth in order to have healthy
rotation and we are simply not seeing it recently. This is why we
believe any rotation or correction at this time could be bigger than
most think. Possibly retesting 2016 lows.
the similarities in all of these charts. It is almost like
everything has been running on autopilot in terms of price appreciation
within the US majors. We do not have any indication of a sell
trigger yet. We would warn investors to be cautious at this time
and to protect open long positions. We do believe a price
reversal in these US majors will begin before Oct 19th and quite possibly as early as October 4th or 5th.
Any moderate price advance early this week followed by immediate price
weakness and rotation could be the setup of a much deeper price move.
you want to continue to receive these types of detailed analysis
reports, timely market triggers and analysis as well as Daily market
updates, visit www.ActiveTradingPartners.com today
and see why our members continue to value our content. We are
dedicated to assisting you in making better trading decisions and
seeing what is in the future with our detailed market analysis and
Are you prepared for the next major market move? If not, visit www.ActiveTradingPartners.comtoday
and see why you should consider joining our team of valued
members. Isn’t it time you invested in your future success?
SEPTEMBER 25, 2017
Hidden Gems Shows A Foreboding Future
quick look at any of the US majors will show most investors that the
markets have recently been pushing upward towards new all-time
highs. These traditional market instruments can be misleading at
times when relating the actual underlying technical and fundamental
price activities. Today, we are going to explore some research
using our custom index instruments that we use to gauge and relate more
of the underlying market price action.
if we told you to prepare for a potentially massive price swing over
the next few months? What if we told you that the US and Global
markets are setting up for what could be the “October Surprise of 2017”
and very few analysts have identified this trigger yet? Michael
Bloomberg recently stated “”.
Want to know why this perception continues and what the underlying
factors of market price activity are really telling technicians?
ATP provide full-time dedicated research and trading signal solution
for professional and active traders. Our research team has
dedicated thousands or hours into developing a series of specialized
modeling systems and analysis tools to assist us in finding successful
trading opportunities as well as key market fundamentals. In the
recent past, we have accurately predicted multiple VIX Spikes, in some
cases to the exact day, and market signals that have proven to be great
successes for our clients. Today, we’re going to share with you
something that you may choose to believe or not – but within 60 days,
we believe you’ll be searching the internet to find this article again
knowing ATP (ActiveTradingPartners.com) accurately predicted one of the
biggest moves of the 21st century. Are you ready?
start with the SPY. From the visual analysis of the chart, below,
it would be difficult for anyone to clearly see the fragility of the US
or Global markets. This chart is showing a clearly bullish trend
with the perception that continued higher highs should prevail.
when we review the QQQ we see a similar picture. Although the
volatility is typically greater in the NASDAQ vs. the S&P, the QQQ
chart presents a similar picture. Strong upward price activity in
addition to historically consistent price advances. What could go
wrong with these pictures – right? The markets are stronger than
ever and as we’ve all heard “it’s different this time”.
Most readers are probably saying “yea, we’ve heard it before and we know – buy the dips”.
we shared some research with you regarding longer term time/price
cycles (3/7/10 year cycles) and prior to that, we’ve been warning of a
Sept 28~29, 2017 VIX Spike that could be massive and a “game changer”
in terms of trend. We’ve been warning our members that this setup
in price is leading us to be very cautious regarding new trading
signals as volatility should continue to wane prior to this VIX Spike
and market trends may be muted and short lived. We’ve still made
a few calls for our clients, but we’ve tried to be very cautious in
terms of timing and objectives.
now, the timing could not be any better to share this message with you
and to “make it public” that we are making this prediction. A number of
factors are lining up that may create a massive price correction in the
near future and we want to help you protect your investments and learn
to profit from this move and other future moves. So, as you read
this article, it really does not matter if you believe our analysis or
not – the proof will become evident (or not) within less than 60 days
based on our research. One way or another, we will be proven
correct or incorrect by the markets.
the past 6+ years, capital has circled the globe over and over
attempting to find suitable ROI. It is our belief that this
capital has rooted into investment vehicles that are capable of
producing relatively secure and consistent returns based on the global
economy continuing without any type of adverse event. In other
words, global capital is rather stable right now in terms of sourcing
ROI and capital deployment throughout the globe. It would take a
relatively massive event to disrupt this capital process at the moment.
are pushing the upper bounds of a rather wide trading channel and price
action is setting up like the SPY and QQQ charts, above. A clear
upper boundary is evident as well as our custom vibrational/frequency
analysis arcs that are warning us of a potential change in price
trend. You can see from the Red Arrow we’ve drawn, any attempt to
retest the channel lows would equate to an 8% decrease in current
there is more evidence that we are setting up for a potentially massive
global price move. The metals markets are the “fear/greed” gauge
of the planet (or at least they have been for hundreds of years).
When the metals spike higher, fear is entering the markets and
investors avoid share price risks. When the metals trail lower,
greed is entering the markets and investors chase share price value.
going into too much detail, this custom metals chart should tell you
all you need to know. Our analysis is that we are nearing the
completion of Wave C within an initial Wave 1 (bottom formation) from
the lows in Dec 2016. Our prediction is that the completion of
Wave #5 will end somewhere above the $56 level on this chart (> 20%+
from current levels). The completion of this Wave #5 will lead to
the creation of a quick corrective wave, followed by a larger and more
aggressive upward expansion wave that could quickly take out the $75~95
levels. Quite possibly before the end of Q1 2018.
termed this move the “Rip your face off Metals Rally”. You can
see from this metals chart that we have identified multiple cycle and
vibrational/frequency cycles that are lining up between now and the end
of 2017. It is critical to understand the in order for this move
to happen, a great deal of fear needs to reenter the global
markets. What would cause that to happen??
Now for the “Hidden Gem”…
presented some interesting and, we believe, accurate market technical
analysis. We’ve also been presenting previous research regarding our
VIX Spikes and other analysis that has been accurate and timely.
Currently, our next VIX Spike projection is Sept 28~29, 2017. We
believe this VIX Spike could be much larger than the last spike highs
and could lead to, or correlate with, a disruptive market event.
We have ideas of what that event might be like, but we don’t know
exactly what will happen at this time or if the event will even become
evident in early October 2017. All we do know is the following…
Head-n-Shoulders pattern we first predicted back in June/July of this
year has nearly completed and we have only about 10~14 trading days
before the Neck Line will be retested. This is the Hidden
Gem. This is our custom US Index that we use to filter out the
noise of price activity and to more clearly identify underlying
technical and price pattern formations. You saw from the earlier
charts that the Head-n-Shoulders pattern was not clearly visible on the
SPY or QQQ charts – but on THIS chart, you can’t miss it.
is a little tough to see on this small chart but, one can see the
correlation of our cycle analysis, the key dates of September 28~29
aligning perfectly with vibration/frequency cycles originating from the
start of the “head” formation. We have only about 10~14 trading
days before the Neck Line will likely be retested and, should it fail,
we could see a massive price move to the downside.
What you should expect over the next 10~14 trading days is simple to understand.
_ Expect continued price volatility and expanded rotation in the US majors.
Expect the VIX to stay below 10.00 for only a day or two longer before
hinting at a bigger spike move (meaning moving above 10 or 11 as a
_ Expect the metals markets to form a potential bottom pattern and begin to inch higher as fear reenters the markets
Expect certain sectors to show signs of weakness prior to this move
(possibly technology, healthcare, bio-tech, financials, lending)
_ Expect the US majors to appear to “dip” within a 2~4% range and expect the news cycles to continue the “buy the dip” mantra.
The real key to all of this is what happens AFTER October 1st and
for the next 30~60 days after. This event will play out as a
massive event or a non-event. What we do know is that this event
has been setting up for over 5 months and has played out almost exactly
as we have predicted. Now, we are 10+ days away from a critical
event horizon and we are alerting you well in advance that it is,
possibly, going to be a bigger event.
I urge all of you to visit our website to learn more about what we do
and how we provide this type of advanced analysis and research for our
clients. We also provide clear and timely trading signals to our
clients to assist them in finding profitable trading opportunities
based on our research. Our team of dedicated analysts and
researchers do our best to bring you the best, most accurate and
advanced research we can deliver. The fact that we called this
Head-n-Shoulders formation back in June/July and called multiple VIX
Spike events should be enough evidence to consider this call at least a
If you want to take full advantage of the markets to profit from these moves, then join today at www.ActiveTradingPartners.com and become a member.
September 13, 2017
Smart Money Tracker
A financial blog with an emphasis on the secular gold bull market.
Today's Chart of the Day - Breakout Immanent?
Text: "The only resistance left in the S&P 500 is the psychological resistance of the round number 2500".
September 3, 2017
Smart Money Tracker
A financial blog with an emphasis on the secular gold bull market.
Today's Chart of the Day - JNUG
Text: "This chart
projects the likely price behavior of JNUG (Direxion Junior Gold Miners
Bull 3X ETF) during the rest of gold's current bull market".
August 23, 2017
Smart Money Tracker
A financial blog with an emphasis on the secular gold bull market.
Today's Chart of the Day - Stock's ICL Complete?
Text: "If we get
upside follow through today or Thursday then I think we are done with
the correction and the vertical phase of the bubble will begin".
August 13, 2017
AUGUST 13, 2017 posted at 10:19 pm
DOT COM Bubble Do-Over?
recent analysis suggests we may be setting up to repeat history in an
odd and dangerous manner. As market technicians, part of our job
is to work with numbers, find patterns and attempt to predict future
price moves in US and Global markets. As you can imagine, it is
not always easy to accurately predict the future. Still, we take
on the challenge and truly enjoy being able to find and share trading
strategy concepts with our ActiveTradingPartners newsletter. As
such, we are sharing this recent technical research data with your
Recently, the ActiveTradingPartners research team identified a unique pattern in the VIX that allowed us to accurately predict the June 29 VIX Spike nearly 3 weeks in advance. Also, on July 30th, we predicted a big decline in the NASDAQ during August. It also allowed us to know that VIX Spikes were possible on other future dates – such as the most recent date near August 4th. Even though the current VIX Spike did not hit exactly on the August 4th cycle
date, the actual VIX Spike move happened only two trading days after
our predicted date and the VIX has rallied over 90% from recent
lows. Sometimes, analysis like this allows us to know months in
advance that a cycle or critical event may have a higher probability of
happening. This allows us to plan and profit from our research.
research correlates to the recent price moves in the XCI index
(Computer Technology), NASDAQ and US Majors. The premise of this
research is that the past 4+ years have resulted in a global investment
in Technology firms as a result of lower ROI in most other
sectors. This focus on technology investing is uniquely similar
to the XCI Index DOT COM rally from the late 1990s and early
2000s. We are attempting to verify our presumptions and analysis
by using core technical analysis techniques as well as fundamental
start by looking at the price activity leading up to the 2000 DOT COM
bubble burst. Initially, our analysis focused on the similarities
in price action setting up this price move. The Accumulation,
Exuberation/Pause, Hype and eventual CRASH phase. In 1995, the
Accumulation phase initiated after a nearly 95% rally from 13+ months
earlier (1994 – 462 weeks total). Currently, the Accumulation
phase initiated after a 100%+ rally from 13+ months earlier (2009 – 427
weeks total). Subsequently, the Accumulation phase lasted 1057
weeks resulting in a 238%+ advance in 1998. The current
Accumulation phase lasted 1456 weeks resulting in a 77%+ advance in
2014. Interestingly, the 1998 advance totaled 472.50 pts while
the 2014 advance totaled 594.00 pts – resulting in a 125% advance size
Exuberation/Pause phase in 1999 lasted 252 weeks and resulted in a
207.19 pt move (+31.51%). The Exuberation/Payse phase in 2016
lasted 889 weeks and resulted in a 288.26 pt move (+21.15%). The
more recent phase took 3.5x longer (time) to result in 139% greater
price advance (which was actually a reduced percentage move of only 67%
of the 1999 advance.
analysts may be quietly stating, “all of this can be attributed to
relationships of percentage values vs higher price valuations”, which
is of course true. Our attempt at dissecting these moves is to
try to understand the propensity and strength of any future moves.
the HYPE phase lasted 39 weeks in 2000 ending with an advance of 895.23
pts (+97.94%) from the PAUSE/FLAG breakout in 1999. The current
HYPE phase lasted 53 weeks ending with an advance of 674.54 pts
(+40.26%) from the PAUSE/FLAG breakout in 2016. The
resulting current HYPE price advance is 25% lesser than the 2000 move
and results in a nearly 60% decrease related to the total percent
2000 DOT COM – XCI Index Chart
2017 DOT COM – XCI Index Chart
2000 total phase advance lasted 220 weeks and resulted in a price
advance of +1607.53 pts (+802.39%). The 2017 total phase advance
lasted 436 weeks and resulted in a price advance of +1878.21
(+402.97%). The percent values of each move represent vastly
different results, yet the total price moves differ by only 17%.
We are certain some of these values and percentage representations are
sparking interest in some of you as you may understand Fibonacci, Gann
and other price analysis techniques.
key to understanding these similarities is to understand the price
sometimes moves in similar, not exact, setups and that we should never
discount the possibility that markets are setting up for another
massive move. Considering these price and relationship values, it
is our perception that any global event, liquidity collapse or massive
terrorist event could present a scenario that may result in a repeat of
the 2000 DOT COM market collapse. Our premise is that the US has
been an investment safe harbor for many and that Technology (FANGs and
others) have benefited greatly from the global market weakness over the
past 7+ years. It is our opinion that the capital that has been
allocated into these global technology giants has, as in the past,
setup a potential for history to repeat itself (given the right type of
COMBINED DOT COM – XCI Index Charts
Our recent VIX Spike analysis shows we should expect future VIX Spikes on Aug 23rd, Sept 11th or 12th and finally Sept 28th or 29th.
Assuming the relationship between the current price setup and the past
setup is relative to the types of relationships we’ve studied so far,
we can predict the following :
initial swing low after the ultimate high (2000) resulted in a 572.02
pt move (a 31.62% correction over 10 weeks). Any current
correction could result in an 8~15.5% price correction over 7~15
weeks. This would put our estimates of a price low near 2152~1980
on or near Sept 25th or Oct 23rd.
This price low would be followed by 4~12 weeks of price advance setting
up a right shoulder near 2150~2256 (possibly). Following that, we
would see the low price rotation broken by extreme selling pressure and
ultimate low target near 770~581 (resulting in a 63~69% correction from
we know this WILL happen? NO. Can we estimate the
probability of it happening as we predicted? NO. How can we tell
if this will play out as we are predicting? If the market
continues to break down and begins to form the right shoulder, then we
would consider, at least this first phase, to be technically
accurate. If it fails to move lower to establish this move, then
we would consider this a technical breach of our research and attempt
to reevaluate our theories.
what we can do at this point is alert you to the potential that a
massive Head-n-Shoulders formation may be setting up in the global/US
markets related to a potential Tech Bubble. The proof will come
with confirmation of our analysis or the failure of our analysis as
price plays out over the next few weeks.
Still, the correlation of the VIX SPIKE dates, Aug 23rd, Sept 11th or 12th and finally Sept 28th or 29th, are interesting because our initial analysis of any price low indicates a potential low price date range near September 25th.
Should this become true, an 8~15% correction in the XCI would clearly
result in a 4~9%+ correction in the NQ and would correlate with our VIX
Spike analysis almost perfectly.
only thing we can do is be aware of these relationships and price
patterns that are setting up and plan our trades properly. Every
trade includes risk, attempting to manage that risk is the objective of
most traders. At this point, Aug 23rd, Sept 11thor 12th and finally Sept 28th or 29th are
critical dates to keep in mind as the future plays out before us.
Watching for these moves and being aware that they could be setting up
for a massive price swing lower are important factors to consider and
being able to protect open LONG positions would not be a bad idea over
the next few months.
only way one can tell if predictions of the future are going to be
accurate or not is to wait for the future to get here and see how well
these predictions worked out. So, we wait with the understanding
that we are watching for confirmation or failure of our analysis with
If you like our research and analysis and want to learn more about our forecasting and trade alert services,
to see what we can offer you. We provide daily market updates, clear
and concise trading triggers/signals, advanced research and analysis of
the US and global markets and more.
loss, of the leadership of the banking and financial sector, BKX ETF,
is now a major warning signal which is what is required in order to
move the SPX much HIGHER, at this time!
divergence which is currently being seen between the Dow Industrials
and Dow Transportation indexes will be coming into play in the upcoming
U.S. dollar has declined to a 52-week low. When stocks have been at a
high and the dollar at a low, historically, the SPX showed a positive
return within six months to one year, almost without exception. I
see support in the 92.50 area.
would expect to see a very quick “oversold” bounce in GLD, then a
correction to the 105 to 107 areas as the final “washout bottom” is put
My approach to the markets is to be flexible enough to handle the possibilities of much stronger and weaker sustained trends than what we have seen in our investment lifetimes.
portfolio has outperformed the SPY by over 114% this year. Quite
a feat when you consider the SPY is up nearly 9% this year and has
almost gone straight up since January 2017.
like to ask our clients and viewers this question, “isn’t it time you
invested in your future?”. We would really like to help you
achieve greater success and find greater opportunities in the markets,
but you have to subscribe for this to happen.
short, active traders should be defensive over the next few days as we
could have one more bout of selling in stocks and a spike in the vix. I
feel the best plays right now will be short metals, short oil, long
Stay tuned for more updates, and be sure to join our , or our ETF trading newsletter for real-time trading signals.
August 6, 2017
Smart Money Tracker
A financial blog with an emphasis on the secular gold bull market.
Today's Chart of the Day - Focus on the Easy Money
Text: Let me show you why I keep stressing that traders should focus most or all of their capital on the stock market.