Dailydart






August 2, 2017



A REVERSAL COMING TO U.S. MAJOR INDEXES?

Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.

 

The Only Chart You Need To See!

VXX 

 

There is currently limited upside potential in the SPX relative to potential downside for the months of August, September and the early part of October 2017. There are signs for the short, intermediate and longer-term trends returning for the best six months of trading officially inaugurated in November of 2017! This is the timing framework when The Next Runaway Leg Up In The Stock Market Will Resume.’

In last weeks’ market action as the profit taking rotation out of the high-tech sector rotated into the Dow Industrials, it reflected a more defensive approach while being invested in “Blue Chips” during which time it achieved a new high.  Sector rotation increased especially noticeable in the transports and technology sectors that were leading the markets higher. If they continue lower, more sectors will join the decline. I am expecting a coming pop in the VIX on Aug 4, Aug 23, Sept 11 or 12 and finally Sept 28 or 29. 2017.  There was a flight to safety in the Yen as well as a strengthening of the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and WTI Crude Oil.

 

An Unusual Anomaly:

Over the past couple of weeks, there was this unusual Anomaly which occurred, as you can see in the chart below.  It now makes me more cautious about our long understanding of risk inter-connectivity”.

How can the equity, gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin markets ALL go HIGHER together?

Tune in every morning for my video analysis and market forecasts at TheGoldAndOilGuy.com to now where the main ‘asset classes’ are headed tomorrow, this week, and next month.

SPX Trend

 

In short, the major equities trend remains to the upside but its likely to take shape in a slow grinding process with downward pressure starting in August fora couple months.

Be sure to follow my daily pre-market video forecasts and ETF trades at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen





Gary Savage​ 
Author of

Smart Money Tracker
A financial blog with an emphasis on the secular gold bull market.

Today's Chart of the Day - Another Channel Breakout

Text: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has joined the Nasdaq index in breaking out of its bull market channel.

Dow Chart







July 23, 2017

LAST CHANCE FOR THE DOLLAR TO RALLY

I think we need to focus on what is happening to the dollar. The intermediate cycle is now 63 weeks long. Clearly that isn’t normal. I’ve maintained for several years that the end game was going to play out in the currency markets. There has to be consequences to printing trillions and trillions of currency units , and leaving interest rates at 0 for 8 years. I don’t think the consequences are going to be deflation. I think the end game will be inflation, just like it was in the 70’s, and just like it was in 2007 and 2008.

It’s taken a while to manifest as other countries have jumped into the game and turned on their printing presses as well, so the collapse in the currency I’ve been looking for has taken quite a while to unfold. The first leg down ended in 2008.

The dollar rally out of the 2014 3 YCL has fooled everyone into thinking the dollar is strong and the euro is going to collapse. So everyone is now on the wrong side of the market. That’s pretty much how every bear market starts with everyone on the wrong side of the boat.

In 2000 everyone thought tech stocks would continue to rise to the moon.

In 2006 everyone was convinced that we were running out of available land, and that real estate prices would continue to rise indefinitely.

In 2008 it was peak oil and calls for $250.

Now in 2017 it’s the notion that the dollar is the prettiest pig in the pen. I’m going to go on record and say the dollar is not the prettiest pig. On the contrary I think the currency crisis I’ve been expecting is going to manifest first in the dollar. And as it does we are going to experience an inflationary shock. First in stocks, and maybe real estate, and later in the commodity markets.

When the dollar failed to rally and instead sliced right through the 38% Fib this week that was a warning bell that something is wrong. The theory now is that the 200 week moving average will turn price back up. But I’m starting to wonder if it will. During the last two bear markets the 200 offered no support at all, and price sliced through those levels like a hot knife through butter.

US Dollar

Ever since the world embarked on this crazy QE experiment we’ve seen markets do things they’ve never done before. Trends last much longer than normal. Cycle rhythms have evolved and stretched in many cases to two or three times normal, and sentiment has to reach much deeper or higher extremes before trends reverse.

Take a look at the bear moves in the yen and euro as a perfect example. The bear moves occurred as almost a straight line down. Virtually no bear market rallies. I wonder if the same thing is happening to the dollar.

Japanese Yen

Next week is going to be important. The FOMC meeting, and the 200 WMA are the last support zone, and last potential event trigger to stop the collapse in the dollar. If these fail then I’d say it’s Katie bar the door time. The dollar is going into the abyss.

US Dollar

From the minute QE 1 began this was inevitable, but it has taken a long time to play out, with a very convincing bull market in the middle to get everyone on the wrong side of the fence and make traders believe that “this time is different”. It’s never different. It wasn’t different in the 70’s when we printed too much money to pay for the Vietnam war. It wasn’t different in 2007 & 2008 when the Fed kept interest rates too low, too long to pull us out of the tech bubble crash, and I maintain it’s not going to be different this time either. There is going to be a penalty for keeping rates at 0 for 8 years and printing trillions of dollars.

Folks there is no free lunch. We’ve had one heck of a party since 2009. If you think there isn’t going to be a hang over at some point, and a price to pay, I’d say you are going to be sadly mistaken.

I’m going to cover how I think this will affect the stock market, commodities, and gold going forward in the weekend report.









July 20, 2017

Gary Savage​ 
Author of

Smart Money Tracker
A financial blog with an emphasis on the secular gold bull market.

Today's Chart of the Day - Nasdaq: Not Parabolic Yet

Text:  At the bubble top in 2000 the Nasdaq was 156% above its 200 week moving average. Currently the Nasdaq is 29% above its 200 week moving average. Clearly not parabolic yet.

Nasdaq Chart






ATP VIX Cycle setting up for “Deja Vu”… again?

We received so many comments and accolades regarding our last few VIX articles (Part #1 : http://www.activetradingpartners.com/active-trader-predicts-vix-spike-nasdaq-selloff/   –  Part #2 :    http://www.activetradingpartners.com/vix-spike-prediction-revisited/ ).  On June 11th, we posted a very detailed article indicating our analysis predicted a a NASDAQ market selloff as well as a VIX SPIKE potential on, or near, June 9th or 12th and June 29th.  This research was actually completed June 7th by our research team – it was just posted on the 11th to our ATP members.  On June 30th, we posted a follow-up article highlighting our predictions and showing how accurate our analysis had been.

 

Today, we are revisiting this topic to make another prediction.  This time, we will expand our analysis a bit further and attempt to explain why we believe the next few VIX cycle events may be setting up for something massive.  So, before you get too far into this article, make sure you take a few minutes to review the previous articles and get caught up.

 

The two predictions we’ve already made were for June 9th or 12th and for June 29th to present a potential spike in the VIX and to see increased volatility in the markets.  First, lets take a look at those two signals and review them a bit.  Before we get into the analysis, though, we want to make sure you understand how our analysis of these cycles is displayed on the charts.  There are actually two levels we are focused on : Pre-Event Cycles and Volatility Cycle Events.  Pre-Event Cycles are setups, price rotation, that will likely precede the VIX/Volatility spikes.  Depending on what market price is doing between these Pre-Event Cycles and the Volatility Cycle Event, we can attempt to determine how valid or extensive the VIX spikes may be.

 

In the chart, below, the Volatility Cycle Events are highlighted with RED ARROWS.  The Pre-Event Cycles are highlighted with YELLOW ARROWS.  Notice how the Pre-Event Cycles are setting up, roughly, 7 days prior to the major event cycle.  We would typically watch for a recent new high or low to form near or after the Pre-Event Cycle as a warning that the Volatility Event Cycle could be an explosive retracement or explosive breakout trend move.  These PRE and POST cycle structures allow us to better understand price movement, rotation, volatility and setups as the cycle events are happening/forming.

Nasdaq Future

 

Now, onto our past triggers and how they setup and worked out.  Both of our earlier VIX Spike calls were based on the chart you are seeing above.  This is not rocket science, folks.  It is just good old cycle and technical analysis with a bit of luck sprinkled in.  You can see our prediction of “the 9th or 12th” was actually perfect in the sense that the US Fed announced a rate increase early on June 9th and the market tanked.  Our June 29th prediction was due more to luck than cycle accuracy.  One has to remember these cycles do not operate like time on a clock – exact dates/times.  These are more like guides that indicate something should happen “near these dates/times”.  So, even though the cycle marker is on June 28th, our analysis team predicted June 29th would be the day the VIX would spike – and we were right.  But consider this for a moment, we could have issued the warning as “near June 29th” and we still would have been correct.  Now, lets take a look at the raw VIX and VXX charts that are driving all of this analysis.

Dual Cycles

 

Although these charts may be a bit confusing to some people, they tell our research team quite a bit.  For example, future volatility cycle events are likely near July 19th, Aug 4th, Aug 23rd, Sept 11th or 12th and finally Sept 28th or 29th.  It is our interpretation that the more likely the VIX is able to base below the $11 level prior to a potential VIX Cycle Event, the more likely we are to see some level of explosive move from these constricted volatility levels.  Although, we can’t accurately predict the size and volatility of the swings in the VIX chart, we attempt to gauge these moves using a simple formula. To make things as simple for you as possible, we have started sharing our VIX trade alerts, and you can even have them autotraded at AlgoTrades.

 

NASDAQ projected volatility (base level) = (Size of Vix Spike (from base)) / 3

 

Expected Volatility Range = (NASDAQ projected volatility / 2.85) ~ (NASDAQ projected volatility / 3.5)

 

In the most recent example, the VIX spike was a total increase of 52% from the base levels (lowest levels).

 

52 / 3 = 17.33  (Expected NQ volatility base)

 

Real NQ expected volatility range =

17.33 / 2.85 = 5.17%

or

17.33 / 3.5 = 4.21%

 

On July 3rd, between the Pre-Event Cycle (June 21st) and the price rotational low (July 3rd), after the Cycle Event, the NQ rotated a total of 293 pts – or 5.02%.

 

These numbers are not rocket science, again.  This is just practiced study of price activity and rotation.

VIX Daily Cycles

So, what should we expect in with the future Cycle Events?  We’ve already given you most of the blueprint for understanding how these work and how they relate to price activity.  Now, the trick is to understand how the cycle events relate to one another and, then, attempting to make educated predictions with regards to future events.

 

This last chart will help you understand how to gauge and judge potential volatility ranges by determining the range of recent price action on the NQ chart.  Notice the range in price recently (roughly 268 pts : 4.65%).  If volatility relates to a full range price rotation, then the VIX will likely spike in size relative to our formulas – approximately 50~70% from base levels.  If the volatility spike results in much larger price moves (beyond the recent price ranges), then we could expect the VIX to spike well beyond 70% (possibly well beyond 100%+++).  It all depends on the fear and level of capital rotation in the markets.  At this point, a safe number is somewhere between 3~5% for the NQ if this range continues to be a future price boundary.

 

With regards to future VIX spike predictions, we will add only one more item for you to consider.  As the VIX levels on our charts continue to consolidate towards the pinnacle (near Oct 12th), expect more volatile and more explosive price rotations in the market.  The fact that this type of cycle analysis predicts a potential spike near Sept 11 should not be overlooked.  We are not saying anything will happen on this date (with any level of accuracy), but we certainly would not discount this date and it’s importance at this key juncture in the markets.  So, be advised that these dates may well present fantastic trading opportunities for smart investors/traders.

Nasdaq Daily Cycle

 

In closing, isn’t it time you took the opportunity to invest in your future with ActiveTradingPartners.com?  We’ve shown you how detailed and accurate our analysis is and how we can assist you in finding and taking advantage of detailed trading signals.  We invite you to join our existing members and start benefiting from our research, analysis and timely market predictions.  One of our newest clients recently mentioned: “I could have saved $9k if I had known about you guys before June 29th”.  That is an example of the value we provide to our members – don’t miss out on the next move – take a look at one of our most recent trades in MOBL.

 

Join www.ActiveTradingPartners.com Now!

 

Chris Vermeulen








July 15, 2017

Gary Savage​ 
Author of

Smart Money Tracker
A financial blog with an emphasis on the secular gold bull market.

Today's Chart of the Day - Nasdaq Channel Breakout

Text: When price breaks out of the bull market channel it's time for the crazy nutty phase of the stock market bubble to begin.

Nasdaq Chart






Momentum Reversal Method Strikes Again with MOBL

In early May, 2017, we alerted our follwers to a trading opportunity that resulted in a nearly perfect Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) setup – this trade was MOBL (Mobileiron Inc).  Now that the trade has completed, we wanted to share with you an example of how the  MRM trading strategy works and how successful some of these setups can become.  But first, lets take a bit of time to understand what ActiveTradingPartners.com is and how we provide benefit and services to our clients.

 

ActiveTradingPartners.com is a research and analytics firm that specialized in US Equities, ETFs and major Commodities analysis.  Our objective is to continually provide updated research and analytics for our members as well as to actively deploy our specialized Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) trading strategy for our members use and benefit.  As many of you may remember, on June 11 2017, we posted our research that the “NASDAQ would sell off” and the “VIX would SPIKE” on or near June 29th, 2017.  How many of you would have loved to know that we predicted a 6% swing in the NASDAQ and a 52% swing in the VIX two weeks in advance on the EXACT DAY it happened?  Read the article here (http://www.activetradingpartners.com/active-trader-predicts-vix-spike-nasdaq-selloff/)

 

What we are trying to illustrate to you is that we attempt to provide value beyond our trading signals and beyond our daily updates.  We attempt to keep you aware of what is likely to happen in the global markets and how these swings can be advantageous for you as traders/investors.  So, before we get sidetracked on the extras we provide, lets focus on this MOBL trade.

 

MOBL began to appear on our MRM alerts in early April 2017.  As with many of the MRM type of setups, they can sometimes start to alert us to setups days or weeks in advance of the actual move.  In this case, classic technical and Fibonacci analysis assisted in confirming our MRM trigger.  The MRM setup was valid and we simply wanted to watch the MRM setup for signs of price volume/rotation.  We often use this price/volume rotation trigger as a means of setting up entry functions for pending MRM triggers.

 

In early May 2017, the price/volume rotation trigger was complete and now we had a valid entry into MOBL with projected targets of $5.45 and $6.25.  Our analysts identify the targets based on recent price action, where our entry is located and current price/volume rotation levels.  In other words, if we believe the move will be short-term, then we will adjust our targets to focus on immediate objectives.  If we believe the move will be a bit longer-term, then we will adjust our targets to focus on that objective.

 

Just to be clear, everything originates from the MRM trigger.  We may see 20 or 30 of these triggers each week.  From there, price confirmation MUST occur or have already happened in order for it to be considered for our ATP members.  Additionally, we attempt to gauge the overall global markets in terms of risk parameters for each MRM setup/trigger.  If the US majors or global markets are weak and fearful, then we’ll address that risk by being more selective of our MRM triggers and setups.  If our analysts believe the US and global markets are going to continue to trend, then we may widen our risk parameters a bit more.

 

On May 11th, 2017, we issued a BUY Swing Trade Alert for MOBL @ $4.65 for a FULL Position.  This exact alert read as follows:

Buy Symbol : MOBL
Max Buy Price: $4.85 or lower
Position Size: FULL
Stop loss: Close below $3.95
Target: $5.45, then $6.25 objective for a 17~35%+ swing potential

Enter FULL position below $4.85 today. A move above $5.35 is expected with a potential for a move above $6.50 later.

 

As you can see from these charts, we executed the MOBL trade flawlessly. The first target was hit only 6 trading days after entry for a +17% gain.  The second target took a bit longer, but it was eventually hit  26 trading days after entry (about one month after entry).  It was just prior to the second target being hit that our research team indicated that MOBL could run much higher and that we should alert our members that we are going to use Target #2 as a stop adjustment and attempt to let this position run.  Typically, we get about 2~4 of these types of trades each calendar year for our members – you know, the big breakout runners that can turn into 30%, 50%, 120% or more.

MOBL OverView

 

When all was said and done, Our VIX/NASDAQ analysis was perfect and the rotation in the tech markets resulted in our MOBL trade getting stopped out July 3rd, 2017 @ $5.85 for a +25.6% gain.  This single trade resulted in a +$4000 total return for our members – this one trade will cover their ActiveTradingPartners.com membership for almost FOUR YEARS.  Believe it or not, we are expecting MOBL to generate another MRM setup soon that could allow us to re-enter this trade for the next run higher.

MOBL OverView

 

This is an excellent example of how our Momentum Reversal Method strategy works and provides benefits for our clients.  Not only do you receive these timely and accurate triggers, but you also receive our advanced research and market analysis.  Like we said early, we alerted our members to a critical June 29th market move two weeks before it happened and our analysis hit perfectly.  We like to ask our clients and viewers this question, “isn’t it time you invested in your future?”.  We would really like to help you achieve greater success and find greater opportunities in the markets, but you have to subscribe at ActiveTradingPartners.com for this to happen.

 

Isn’t it time you invested in quality, logical trade research your future? CLICK HERE TO JOIN




July 12, 2017

Gary Savage​ 
Author of

Smart Money Tracker
A financial blog with an emphasis on the secular gold bull market.

Today's Chart of the Day - Nasdaq 100

Text: The Nasdaq 100 has regained the 50 dma. I think we can safely assume the move down into the daily cycle low is complete, and the PPT has again managed to hold off another intermediate cycle low.

Nasdaq 100 Chart





July 3, 2017

Gary Savage​ 
Author of

Smart Money Tracker
A financial blog with an emphasis on the secular gold bull market.

Today's Chart of the Day - Gold: Trend Line Broken

Text: Gold has closed below its intermediate uptrend line. This is the first confirmation that a larger intermediate degree decline has begun.

Gold Futures Chart




July 2, 2017

June 29th VIX Spike Prediction Revisited

Nearly 2 weeks ago, we issued a research/analysis report indicating our analysts had seen a VIX pattern that forecasted a VIX spike on June 29th of this month to coincide with a potential explosive move in the markets.  Today (June 29th) the vix spiked over 45% exactly as we has predicted, so we thought we would revisit this analysis and update our valued followers.

 

Recently, as many of you already know by being ATP members, the US and global markets have rotated on a number of news items and concerns.  First, the IMF revised US economic expectations to address slower than expected economic activity.  Next, NASDAQ technology stocks have recently been very volatile in relative terms and have driven some very big moves.  Additionally, just last weekend two banks in Italy have been closed as a result of failed ability to raise capital levels to support activities/risk.  Lastly, the BITCOIN drama seems to be continuing with this recent ransom-ware outbreak originating from within Ukraine.  All this uncertainty and risk is a bit concerning for the markets in terms of volatility.

 

Today, the US markets recovered well, but we are still watching these price levels closely for further signs of weakness.  Our interest in terms of revising our VIX spike projection is as it relates to the metals markets, so lets get started.

 

The recent rotation in the US majors is setting up a consolidation period that may be similar to past price moves.  This weekly NQ chart illustrates the previous 4 years of price action and clearly shows levels of consolidation prior to upward price expansion.  Notice the two most recent examples, October through December 2016 and April through July 2016.  Volatility throughout these periods spiked as the markets rotated magnitudes away from Standard Deviation ranges – yet, the markets resumed the upward price moves after a period of time.  We believe this is a function of capital searching for price validation.

 

Also, notice the cycle indicators near the bottom of the chart.  This recent rotation is not really evident in the cycle rotation analysis.  Although the cycle indicator is showing us extended upward cycle expansion, we believe this rally still has room to run.

Nasdaq  E-Mini

 

This 60 minute NQ chart more clearly illustrates the recent “washout low” price rotation and defines support near 5650.  We can see the price move after the US Fed increased rates (near June 11th) as well as the rotation in price thereafter.  We can also see the near perfect “Triple Bottom” formation that coincides with major cycle rotations.

Nasdaq E-Mini

Our analysis suggests this type of price rotation and congestion may continue for another few weeks as we were expecting this weeks VIX Spike and we took advantage of it with our automated vix trading system today which hit a new high watermark for the portfolio today, and more VIX spikes may follow yet.  Because of this expectation, we also believe the metals markets will attempt to find lower lows over the next few days/weeks as volatility increases and the VIX rallies above $14~15.

 

Our analysis of the metals markets indicates we may be setting up for an explosive upside price move – but not before we retest some recent lows.  Based on this analysis, we believe the Gold may fall to near $1200 as the US majors resume some attempt at recent highs before the VIX spike explodes – resulting in the beginning of a massive move in the metals and likely many global markets.

Gold Futures

 
 

The VIX is setting up for what we believe will be a spike higher that may break recent highs (well above $16).  Our VIX analysis tells us that between now and July 7th, we should see the beginning of a VIX spike that could be 2x or 3x larger than the most recent price spikes. As this relates to the US majors, metals and global markets, this could be a massive disruption/trend.  We believe our analysis of the VIX price cycles are accurate and we have positioned our ActiveTradingPartners.com members appropriately to take advantage of these moves.

 

We will likely revisit this analysis near the middle of July to follow-up with our research and to better inform our members with regards to future price action and opportunities.  If you find this type of analysis helpful and insightful, then visit ActiveTradingPartners.com to learn more about our research team and opportunities.  Our most recent trades illustrate our dedication to delivering success to our members and providing the best research we are capable of.  Join ATP today to take full advantage of our success.


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